Wednesday, November 15, 2006

I'm going to do the college primer this morning, although I'm not sure how much of it I will get finished. I'm only giving myself 10 minutes.

Anyway, as I noted last week we are in the part of the season where the Divisional and Conference Championship races are coming to an end. This week is rivalry week, and that marks the end of the season for life in the Big Ten and the beginning of the end for all of the other conferences. Last week Georgia Tech (ACC Atlantic), Nebraska (Big 12 North), Houston (C-USA West), and Central Michigan (MAC West), clinched their respective divisions, joining Florida (SEC East), who clinched two weeks ago. 23 games are on tap this week that involve at least one team from one of these races, and there are several possible clinchers, as well as two de facto conference championship games in major conferences. Without further ado...

Tonight, 7:30 - Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green - Bowling Green is already hanging by its fingertips to being mathametically "in the race" for the MAC East. Every game is a must-win, and they have to hope Ohio loses from here on out. Miami (OH) is already out of the race, and they'd love nothing more than to end Bowling Green's season one night early.

Tomorrow (Thursday), 7:30 - Akron @ Ohio - And it probably would only be one night early, because the odds are Ohio wins tomorrow night and renders tonight's game meaningless. Akron is another team that is "mathematically" still alive, and obviously needs to win here to remain so. If Ohio wins, in fact, they clinch the MAC East.

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh - Perhaps the most nationally undercelebrated rivalry is the Backyard Brawl. Coming into this one, West Virginia sees that they can still grab the BCS Bowl bid that comes with a conference title thanks to Rutgers beating Louisville, and with one loss could finish the year where they started - in the top 5, which would be huge for their recruiting. But Pittsburgh doesn't want to see that, and they'll do whatever they can to take their rivals down.

Friday, 6:00 - Eastern Michigan @ Kent State - Like the Bowling Green game tonight, this game only matters if Ohio doesn't clinch the MAC East Thursday with a win over Akron, which they probably will. If they don't, then Kent State could pull into a tie (although Ohio would have the tiebraker with one game to go, thanks to their earlier defeat of Kent State) for first with a win here.

Saturday, 12:00 - Maryland @ Boston College - The ACC Atlantic division is down to three teams, the two in this game and Wake Forest. If Maryland wins here, then it's down to two teams. If BC wins, they stay alive in the hunt for another week.

Connecticut @ Syracuse - Connecticut is only scarecely mathametically alive in the Big East. They need to win this week and they need Rutgers to lose later on to stay that way.

12:10 - Oklahoma @ Baylor - Oklahoma should win this game easily, but should Baylor pull off the upset, the Texas Longhorns would clinch the Big 12 South on their week off.

2:30 - Arkansas @ Mississippi State - The Razorbacks need only win this game and they are SEC West Champions. If they lose, the door stays open for LSU and Auburn, who would be too happy to take advantage of the opportunity.

3:00 - Utah State @ Boise State - If Boise State wins, and they should, they would clinch the WAC title. Even if they lost, they would still be in the driver's seat. However, Boise State's real goal - a BCS Bowl bid, would be pretty much out the window if they lost now.

East Carolina @ Rice - ECU has been a doormat in recent seasons, but this year they find themselves in position to clinch the C-USA East division with a win over Rice. Sould Rice pull off the upset, then Southern Mississippi would suddenly find the door to the Conference title game wide open.

3:30 - Michigan @ Ohio State - College ball's most celebrated rivalry. 1 vs. 2. De facto Big Ten title game. The winner of this game will be #1 going into the BCS Title game. If all that doesn't interest you, then I don't know what I can do for you.

Auburn @ Alabama - Unfortunately, the Iron Bowl finds itself on at the same Bat Time as the Game Of The Year. Also unfortunately, with Arkansas needing only a win over Mississippi State to clinch the SEC West, this game will probably be meaningless, in the grand scheme of things. But, the Iron Bowl is never meaningless to the players involved, and should make for good TV when Michigan vs. Ohio State is in commercial break.

4:00 - New Mexico @ Brigham Young - If BYU wins, they clinch the Mountain West Conference. If New Mexico can upset them, then Utah suddenly has a chance to sneak in and nab the conference title.

7:00 - Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - Trust Florida State on this - Wake Forest is very for real. The Hokies come in having to play spoiler, with their division already clinched by Georgia Tech. Wake can afford a loss this game, since they play Maryland to close out the season, but why settle for being 9-2 when you could be 10-1?

Arkansas State @ Troy - Troy will play Middle Tennessee State in what will likely be the de facto Sun Belt Championship game next week, so this game isn't crucial for them. If they do win, though, then it would mean that next week's winner would clinch the conference.

7:30 - South Florida @ Louisville - Their BCS title dreams shot, Louisville comes into this game needing a win to stay near the top of the Big East. South Florida also has an outside shot at the Big East Championship, but even that could be mathematically eliminated if they lose.

Utah @ Air Force - This game is only important if New Mexico can upset BYU. If that does happen, then Utah, with a win here, would set up a de facto Mountain West Conference championship game with BYU next week. An Air Force win here would clinch the conference for BYU, assuming they hadn't clinched it already by beating New Mexico.

7:45 - Rutgers @ Cincinnati - The Scarlet Knights are now in the driver's seat to win the Big East, and they are all the rage in the media, but all they need is a slip-up against Cincinnati and they will be yesterday's news. If Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia all win, then that would officially make the Big East what it has been unofficially for weeks: a three-team race.

8:00 - California @ Southern California - This is the de facto Pac 10 Championship game, and for Southern California, a win here could have them playing for the BCS title for the third year in a row, and it would be the 4th year in a row that they played for a share of the "National Championship".

Mississippi @ Louisiana State - LSU needs Southern Mississippi to upset Arkansas to hold on to their SEC Championship dreams, and then they need to win this game. If Arkansas can put away the Bulldogs, though, LSU still has their bowl picture to consider. Not to mention that potentially running off 7 straight wins to end the season would be a good way to build momentum for a BCS Championship campaign next year.

Nevada @ Louisiana Tech - Nevada is one of three teams clinging to mathematical relevance in the WAC. By the time this game kicks off, they probably won't be, with Boise State having a very good opportunity to clinch the WAC by beating Utah State earlier in the day. But if Utah State could do the unimaginable and knock off Boise State, then Nevada could keep the dream alive one more week by winning here.

Alabama Birmingham @ Southern Mississippi - Remember how I told you that Southern Miss could sneak in the backdoor and win the C-USA East if ECU faltered? Well, they'd need a win here to take advantage of that opportunity, should it present itself, then they would need a win next week against Marshall.

11:05 - San Jose State @ Hawaii - The other two teams clinging to mathematical relevance in the WAC are conveniently playing each other in the last game of the night. Hawaii has the slightly better chance of winning the conference of the three coming into this week's action, but even their chances are extremely slim with Boise State having to drop both of their last two games to give anyone else a chance.

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