5/15/07

Two quick notes before I get to the meat of this post:

- After Sunday's Oriole game, it's going to be a while before I am up to writing anything more about baseball, save this: the Orioles need to fire Sam Perlozzo, now. They need to do it for two reasons: first, to send a message through the organization that people will be held accountable for their mistakes, especially mistakes as stupid and colossal as that one; second, to show their fans that at least something positive came out of that debacle. If Sam Perlozzo is fired, then losing one regular season game is a small price to pay. After all, the Red Sox had to learn that Grady Little was too stupid to manage a team when he cost them Game 7 of the ALCS, not just a regular season game in May.

- Congratulations to the UMBC men's lacrosse team, who defeated Maryland 13-9 in the first round of the NCAA tournament Sunday. This is the biggest win for UMBC in any team sport in school history, and the second biggest win in any sport behind Cleopatra Borel's 2002 women's shotput National Championship (unless, of course, you count chess as a sport - UMBC is a national chess powerhouse and multi-time National Champion). They play Delaware, who had a similar-sized upset over Virginia, next week, with the winner going to the Final Four.

Ok, now to the main part of this post.

A few days ago, I decided to figure out, once and for all, who was the greatest quarterback in NFL history. This is a topic that always brings out strong emotions, as everyone seems to have their favorite. A lot of the time, that favorite depends largely on where you are from or for which team you cheer. For instance, people from my neck of the woods are partial to Johnny Unitas, whereas the folks who live up here where I am now will tell you Tom Brady at least belongs in the discussion (spoiler alert: he does). Also, people have different measuring sticks as to how to determine which QB is best. People who think stats tell the whole story tend to like Dan Marino or Peyton Manning, whereas some folks say "count the rings" and point to Joe Montana or Terry Bradshaw.

Me, I'm a stats guy, and I believe that rings are a by-product of a QB doing things to help his team win. But it's silly to believe that a QB can, all by himself, overcome his team's faults, if they are great enough, and carry his team to championships if he doesn't have the horses around him. On the other hand, though, I don't like compilation stats. I mean, Dan Marino had to be a hell of a quarterback to set NFL records in categories like career passing yards and touchdown passes, but does that mean he was the best, or just the guy who threw the most often? No, the stats I went looking for were ratios.

I used four ratio stats in my hunt. Completion percentage, TD/INT ratio, yards per attempt, and passer efficiency rating (aka QB rating - a number computed using raw data that makes up the other three ratios). I recorded the statistics for the 23 "modern era" QBs in the Hall of Fame as well as 3 QBs who are currently playing whose enshrinement I think is a certainty. I then took the highest score from among the 26 QBs in each statistical category and made that the standard against which all of the other scores were judged. I then converted all of the scores into a percentage of the standard. For example, Otto Graham had the highest YPA of 8.98, so 8.98 became the standard for YPA. Otto's percentage score for YPA was 1.000, and he set the standard in that category. Warren Moon had a YPA of 7.23. As 7.23 is 80.5% of 8.98 (yes, I had to use a calculator to figure these out), Moon's score for YPA became .805.

All of the percentages were added up for each QB, and the totals were used to rank the 26. Here they are, in reverse order:

26. George Blanda - Blanda is in the Hall primarily for his longevity - he was a player for 26 seasons, the most in pro football history. His numbers were quite pedestrian, even for his era - of the 26 QBs, he was dead last in three of the four categories (in TD/INT ratio he was 23rd). My hat is off to the guy for playing until he was 48, but otherwise, his career was unspectacular.

25. Bob Waterfield - Waterfield appears to have been carried into the Hall on the shoulders of his teammates. In his short career, he was on two NFL Championship teams despite his very pedestrian statistics. The best part of his game, in fact, appears to have been punting, where he netted a career 42.4 yard average. Had he punted last season for that average, he would have finished 7th in the NFL, which is pretty impressive when you consider that he was doing this 60 years ago and he was not a full-time punter, which today's punters obviously are.

24. Bobby Layne - My system seems to be discriminating against players who started their careers in the 1940s, but I have no problem with that. The QB position has eveolved over the years, and I have no trouble believing that today's QBs are better, by some margin, than those of earlier eras. A 49% completion percentage and .81 TD/INT ratio today would leave you out of a job. In the 1950s, it made you a multi-time NFL champion and a Hall of Famer.

23. Joe Namath - Ah, Broadway Joe, the one game wonder. If you're going to win any game, however, it probably should be the most important one in NFL history - Super Bowl III, which demonstrated how high the level of play in the AFL was and led directly to the merger and the creation of the NFL as we know it today. But other than that win, Namath was a pedestrian QB, and most of his peers on this list outperformed him considerably.

22. Terry Bradshaw - Bradshaw is the fatal flaw in the arguement that the true measure of a QB's greatness is the number of championships that he won. The Pittsburgh Steelers who dominated the 1970s were about defense and a strong running game, which were great enough to win 4 Super Bowl titles in spite of the average QB play they were getting from Bradshaw. He seems like a great guy, but professionally he was the Ringo Starr of quarterbacks.

21. Y.A. Tittle - If Tittle had spent his entire career posting the kind of numbers he posted in the years at the end of his career with the Giants, he would be much further up this list. In fact, Tittle's career can be seen as a kind of microchasm for the evolution of the QB position. As the 1950s came to an end and the 1960s began, QBs began to pay a lot more attention to taking care of the football, and the result can be seen in the fact that the TD/INT ratios began to climb, which you can certainly see in Tittle's numbers.

20. Norm Van Brocklin - With one exception, Van Brocklin is the last QB who started playing before 1950 on this list. His numbers are very similar to Tittle's, with one noticable difference - his gaudy 8.18 YPA, good for second on the list and the only person to come within under a yard of Otto Graham's preposterous 8.98 average. More on Graham later.

19. Bob Griese - Now we're getting into the names that you don't have to be an NFL historian to recognize. Griese is best known for leading the 1972 Dolphins to a 17-0 season. None of Griese's statistics are particularly spectacular, but with a 56.2% completion rate, he is one of the more accurate passers on the list.

18. Johnny Unitas - A lot of folks might be suprised to see Unitas' name this far down (I sure was), but you have to remember that Johnny U stayed on six seasons too long, and that dragged down his career numbers. Perhaps in the future I'll do something like this where I look at the 5 seasons that make up a QBs peak, but until then the Golden Arm stays right here.

17. Dan Fouts - The leader of the original "Air Coryell" attack that is the basis for many offensive systems run in the NFL today, including the one by the Redskins under Joe Gibbs, who was Fouts' OC in San Diego, Fouts boasts an impressive 58.8% completion rate and a not-too-shabby 7.68 YPA, which are unfortunately somewhat offset by a 1.05 TD/INT ratio.

16. Bart Starr - Starr and Unitas both started playing pro ball in 1956, and had very similar careers. Starr called it quits in 1971, whereas Unitas hung on until 1973, and that is a large part of the reason why Starr is 16 and Unitas is 18. Another part is that Starr was a much more accurate QB than Unitas (57.4% completion rate versus 54.3%).

15. John Elway - A lot of people think Elway should be rated higher - some even think he should be #1. But the numbers simply don't add up for Elway. Oh, he's a Hall of Fame quarterback, to be sure. He just isn't among the elites of the elite, in spite of his immense physical talents.

14. Troy Aikman - When he was playing, the one thing everyone kept harping on about Aikman was his accuracy, and with good reason. Troy's gaudy 61.5% completion rate is the main reason he is so high on this list. Mediocre TD/INT and YPA numbers are why he isn't higher.

13. Fran Tarkenton - When he retired, Tarkenton owned every significant compilation stat record and he also had the distinction of being 0-3 in Super Bowls. However, in later years Dan Marino would surpass Tarkenton in passing records, and Jim Kelly would surpass him in Super Bowl futility. They both surpassed him on this list, as well.

12. Warren Moon - There was some questioning of Moon's credentials when he was elected to the Hall recently, but close inspection of his record reveals that those questions are unwarranted (pun not intended). His 58.4% completion rate, 1.25 TD/INT and a 80.9 efficiency rating are all very Hall worthy numbers. Especially that completion percentage.

11. Len Dawson - He isn't quite as well known as peers Unitas, Starr, or Namath, but if Joe Namath's Jets hadn't won Super Bowl III the year before Dawson's Chiefs defeated the NFL Champion Vikings in Super Bowl IV, Dawson would probably be more famous than all of them. As it is, he'll have to settle for being higher than them on this list, for whatever that's worth.

10. Sonny Jurgensen - The leader of the Redskins during the George Allen years, Sonny's numbers are very solid across the board. As Jurgenseon aged, he moved into a part-time role, and unlike Unitas, he continued to post excellent numbers until his retirement.

9. Roger Staubach - Staubach and Jurgensen were practically the same quarterback. In fact, Staubach, Jurgensen, Dawson, Moon, Tarkenton, and Elway all posted numbers that are very similar to one another's. Staubach's just happened to be slightly better than all the rest's.

8. Jim Kelly - Jim Kelly also posted numbers that would have him in that group, except for one thing - his completion rate (60.1%) was significantly higher than all of them.

7. Brett Favre - The first of the three active QBs to appear on the list, Favre also has a very high completion rate - 61.1%. Like Johnny Unitas, though, Favre might take a tumble if he continues to struggle late in his career.

6. Otto Graham - Unquestionably ahead of his time, Graham finds himself way up on the list in comparison to his peers due to his much higher completion percentage and TD/INT ratio, and the twice aforementioned absolutely stunning 8.98 YPA. If your definition best all-time QB is, who was the best compared to others of his era, Graham wins hands down.

5. Dan Marino - The sport's ultimate compiler, for now, Marino wasn't just setting records because he threw a lot. A 59.4% completion rate and 1.67 TD/INT ratio are both spectacular numbers.

4. Tom Brady - A lot of people look at Brady like they look at Terry Bradshaw - a guy who went along for the ride as his team won Super Bowl after Super Bowl. Let me put that to rest right here. Brady's 61.9% completion rate, 1.88 TD/INT ratio, and 88.4 efficiency rating are all the highest of anyone's we've seen on this list thusfar. Amazingly enough, though, none of those numbers will hold up even after we move up a single spot.

3. Joe Montana - As great as Brady's numbers are though, the top three QBs are on even another level. Montana boasts a 63.2% completion rate, a 1.96 TD/INT ratio, and a 92.3 efficiency rating, and while Brady has a pedestrian 7.04 YPA, Montana's is a much higher 7.52. Once again, though, all of those numbers will be topped by the next guy.

2. Peyton Manning - Manning's career numbers - 64.0 completion %, 1.98 TD/INT, 94.4 efficiency rating - are all very nice, but let's look again at his ridiculous 2005 campaign, by far the greatest season of all time. Manning completed a ludicrous 67.6% of his passes, he had a preposterous 4.90 TD/INT ratio, posted an ungodly 9.17 YPA, all for a passer efficiency rating of 121.1, which is so high, I don't even have an adjective for it.

1. Steve Young - Honestly, this suprised me. But Young may be the most underappreciated quarterback of all-time. He replaced a legend in Montana, and that is always tough to do. But if you are yourself a legend, I guess it can be done. Young set the standard in completion rate (64.3%), TD/INT ratio (2.17), and efficiency rating (96.8), and his YPA (7.98) is considerably higher than each of the other top 5 QBs.

So, for right now, Young is the greatest QB of all-time. However, there is a chance Manning could catch him, if he continues to throw well for seasons to come. Well have to check back after next season to see how things are progressing.

Ok, kids, politics tomorrow. Till then...

5/1/07

It's May, which means training camp is right around the corner. The NFL Draft was this past weekend, so let's talk some football.

The first round this year was excrutiatingly long - 6 hours, 2 minutes, to be exact. And it wasn't that long because of all the excitement, either; no trades took place until pick 14. This seemed to be a draft where everyone wanted to move down, but no one could find a partner. Here are my 10 observations from the draft:

1. Family ties was the theme of the weekend for the Washington Redskins. Their first round pick, LaRon Landry, is the brother of Ravens' safety Dawan Landry. In addition, their 6th round picks were HB Blades, son of former NFLer Bennie Blades, and Jordan Palmer, younger brother of Cincinnati QB Carson.

2. Three or perhaps four players who are ready to step in and make an immediate big-time impact were available in the first round. Those players were Calvin Johnson, who went to Detroit, Landry, Adrian Peterson, who went to Minnesota, and the questionable one is Greg Olsen, who went to Chicago. Everyone else should struggle for a season, given their positions and skill levels.

3. I don't know at what point New England looked at Washington and decided to make them the model for their franchise, but it's a strategy they ought to forget as soon as possible. Adding career second bananas Donte Stallworth (on his third team in three seasons) and Adalius "I've played my entire career next to Ray Lewis" Thomas, as well as a 30-year-old Randy Moss who hasn't been an impact player for years and has now been booted from two teams because he throws his hands in the air, and waves them like he just don't care, are moves that are absolutely Redskinesque, and I mean that in the worst possible way. Meanwhile the Redskins, who have quietly made a few strategic moves to bolster their defensive personnel but avoided the temptation of another major roster overhaul, have looked like the Patriots. It's almost like the best and worst front offices in the League had a brain switch. I'm in favor.

4. How does Dallas not draft Brady Quinn? Are they really that sold on Toni Romo? I mean, really? I can't believe they traded his rights to Cleveland after his absurd free-fall - absolutely mind-boggling.

5. Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE, seems to be in love with the Brows draft. If I'm a Browns fan, that fact scares the shit out of me.

6. Draft "grades" are so ridiculous at this point. First of all, most everyone uses the wrong criteria - the draft isn't supposed to help you this coming season. As I said before, only a handful of drafted players will be making any kind of impact for their teams, the rest will play like rookies. Secondly, we have no idea how this is going to pan out. How many experts thought the Chargers did a fabulous job the year they took Ryan Leaf? Who knew the Patriots got the steal of the century when they took Tom Brady in the 6th round (I'll give you a clue - not even the Patriots)? Talk to me in three to five years, then we can grade each draft class.

7. How much money did Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith lose when his team crapped the bed at the BCS title game? He was being talked about as a day one player back when his Buckeyes were trouncing everyone in sight. One Florida steamrolling later, though, and he's going with the very last pick in the fifth round. Not that that game helped his opponent Chris Leak out any - he didn't get drafted at all.

8. Here's my list of teams that will be very sorry they passed on Brady Quinn: the Buccaneers, the Vikings, the Dolphins (big time!), the Texans (will they ever learn?), the Bills, the Panthers, the Packers, and the Cowboys.

9. Just because the Panthers should have taken Brady Quinn with the 14th pick, doesn't mean that Keyshawn Johnson should be on ESPN's draft coverage saying that the Panthers should have taken Brady Quinn with the 14th pick.

10. First round picks most likely to bust: Gaines Adams, TB (one-dimnsional); Adrian Peterson, MIN (fragile); Ted Ginn, MIA (are you kidding me?); Marshawn Lynch, BUF (Pac-10 RB); Justin Harrell, GB (fragile); Brandon Meriwether, NE (crazy); Anthony Spencer, DAL (not that good).

I think, for the hell of it, I'll grade 2003's NFL draft with my next post in this blog.